01
active view
Clarity
One clear insight at a time
Every forecast shows the probability, the market's view, and the reasoning — no dashboards full of noise.
Probabilities with a public memory
See the call.
See the receipt.
Veridian turns noisy evidence into calibrated probability forecasts, then keeps the recorded revisions, wins, and misses on a public record. No victory laps without the ledger.
Timestamped forecasts Public track record Signed receipts
Waitlist perk: 20% off your first 3 months
Public validation first. No spam, no hidden outcomes.
Anatomy of a call
Illustrative forecast
68%
kalshiEconomics
Will the next inflation print come in below consensus?
Veridian 68% · Market 54%
14 pts
disagreement
High
confidence
6
sources
Probability path
54% → 68%
Veridian Market
Timestamped before the outcome
Every probability revision stays visible
Signed receipt can be independently verified
The forecast desk · live
Questions the system is working now.
Public market inputs become inspectable calls—not a mysterious score. Select a question to compare Veridian’s probability with the market in real time.
Mapping the live forecast desk
Comparing Veridian probabilities with current market signals
The public record · live
Performance without selective memory.
Every resolved call remains available with its original probability, observed outcome, and final verdict. Accuracy is useful; calibration and proper scoring tell the fuller story.
Observed accuracy—Loading ledger
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Resolved
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Unresolved
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Brier score
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Abstained
Loading public performance
Synchronizing the latest complete intelligence surface
Wins and misses use the same public ledger.
CONTRACT TERMSSOURCE INDEPENDENCEMARKET PRIORFRESHNESSCALIBRATIONRISK GATESABSTENTIONSIGNED RECEIPTSCONTRACT TERMSSOURCE INDEPENDENCEMARKET PRIORFRESHNESSCALIBRATIONRISK GATESABSTENTIONSIGNED RECEIPTS
Inside the intelligence stack
Thousands of checks.
One legible call.
Veridian’s backend is deliberately complex. The experience is not. Explore the layers that turn contract terms, independent evidence, calibration, and risk controls into a forecast a human can inspect in seconds.
System view · illustrative Processing layer
Before research begins, Veridian reads the actual question—not just the headline.
Venue, expiry, outcome side, resolution terms, liquidity, and market price form the decision boundary. If the contract cannot be understood, the system should abstain.
Terms96
Market structure82
Time horizon74
resolution termsexpiryoutcome sideliquidity
Receipts, not promises
A forecast should survive hindsight.
Veridian records what it believed, when it believed it, and how the number changed—then scores the result against the market.
01
Forecast before the outcome
Probability, market price, confidence, and sources are recorded while the question is still open.
02
Keep the revision history
The recorded history stays visible, so a final answer cannot quietly replace the path that produced it.
03
Score it in public
Resolved calls—including misses—feed the same public track record and calibration view.
Built for judgment
Signal without the theater.
Accountability
Receipts, not promises
Published calls preserve the recorded forecast and available revision history. Resolved outcomes remain visible in the public record.
3P
judged
Benchmarking
Measured outside our walls
Veridian competes in public Metaculus tournaments, judged by a third party — not by us.
LIVE
signal delivery
Mobile first
Built for your pocket
Install it on any phone in two taps. Material revision alerts arrive when a call changes, not when it doesn't.
Who it's for
Anyone whose next decision depends on being right about what happens next.
Decision lane
Prediction market traders
Get an independent, calibrated probability next to the market price before you take a side — and see exactly where Veridian disagrees with the crowd.
Price
Edge
Position
Published calls state where Veridian disagrees with the market and show the revision history available in the public record.
Decision lane
Analysts & researchers
Headlines tell you what might happen. A calibrated forecast tells you how likely it is, with the reasoning and sources behind every number.
Evidence
Calibrate
Cite
Every forecast lists its evidence sources and full revision history — nothing is retconned.
Decision lane
Decision makers
Turn messy real-world questions — elections, rates, markets — into probabilities you can plan against, from a system judged on its results.
Question
Scenario
Plan
Wins and misses stay on the public track record, benchmarked in Metaculus tournaments.
Judge the record before the pitch.
Explore the live feed, inspect how a forecast is assembled, and read every resolved result before deciding whether Veridian belongs in your process.
Public outcome ledger
Illustrative signed record
Forecast68%published
Market54%at timestamp
OutcomeYESresolved
SHA256 · 8F21…A19CReceipt intact